If you had “US Government runs Venezuela” on your 2026 bingo card, please collect your prize at the front desk. Sunday nights are usually reserved for the “Sunday Scaries”, dreading the morning alarm, not watching geopolitical history unfold live on television. But here we are. The swift capture of Nicolás Maduro has turned the start of this trading week into a case study on political risk premiums.

While the operation was surgical, the market implications are messy. We are looking at a potential flood of oil supply in the long term, but a chaotic transition in the short term. It is a strange morning when the US President effectively announces a hostile takeover of a sovereign nation’s management, promising to fix their infrastructure like it’s a distress real estate asset. As traders scramble to price in this new reality, we are here to break down what it means for your portfolio, why your local refinery is secretly cheering, and why gold is suddenly looking very shiny again.

This Week I Learned…

Why American Refineries Crave the Heavy Stuff

In light of the Venezuela news, you might be asking: “The US is energy independent and swimming in oil, so why do we care about Venezuela’s supply?”

This week I learned that not all oil is created equal. The United States produces a massive amount of “light, sweet” crude (think West Texas Intermediate). It is liquid, low in sulfur, and flows easily. However, many of the massive refineries along the US Gulf Coast were built decades ago, specifically designed to process “heavy, sour” crude, the thick, molasses-like sludge that comes from places like Canada, Mexico, and yes, Venezuela.

Refining light oil in a heavy oil facility is inefficient; it is like trying to brew espresso in a French press. You can do it, but you are not getting the best result. US refiners have been forced to import heavy crude to blend with domestic light oil to run at peak efficiency. With Venezuela’s heavy oil potentially coming back online (eventually), US refiners could see their input costs drop significantly, solving a mismatch that has plagued the industry since the shale boom began.

The Fun Corner

The “Chuck Norris” Premium

Markets usually hate uncertainty, but they love a good action movie script. With the sudden nature of the operation in Caracas, some strategists are dusting off an old term from the 1980s: the Chuck Norris Premium.

It refers to the extra few dollars per barrel that traders add to the price of oil whenever the US shows a renewed interest in “muscular” foreign policy. When the US military starts moving pieces around the global chess board, the fear of supply disruptions usually sends prices spiking. However, in a twist of irony, because this specific operation might increase supply by fixing Venezuela’s broken pumps, we might be seeing a “Reverse Chuck Norris” effect, where the action hero kicks prices down instead of up. Just don’t tell the bond market; they are still hiding under the table.

 Operation Caracas: A hostile Takeover (Literally)

President Donald Trump stunned global markets late Sunday with the announcement that a US military operation had successfully captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In a statement that sounded more like a corporate acquisition than a diplomatic maneuver, Trump declared that the United States would effectively “run” Venezuela during a transition period.

The financial implications are immediate and vast. The President stated that US oil companies would “go in” to repair Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure—a project estimated to cost billions but one that could eventually unlock millions of barrels of daily crude production. For context, Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world, yet its output has collapsed due to decades of mismanagement and sanctions.

The markets are reacting with a mix of shock and calculation. Oil prices are under pressure, dropping roughly 4% in early trading as algorithms price in a future supply glut. This is bad news for Canadian heavy oil producers who compete directly with Venezuelan crude, but potentially excellent news for US refiners and oil-service giants like Halliburton or Schlumberger, who may be tapped to rebuild the country’s grid. Meanwhile, gold, the classic panic button, has surged, proving that while investors love cheap oil, they hate political vacuums.

Despite the chaos, the crypto sector remained surprisingly steady, suggesting that while the geopolitical map is being redrawn, modern liquidity flows are not easily spooked. The big question now is the timeline: fixing a broken petro-state takes years, not weeks. But for now, the “For Sale” sign is up in Caracas, and US energy giants are the only ones with a ticket to the open house.

The Last Say

Volatility is the New Normal

We wrap up this historic week with a reminder that “swift” military operations often lead to slow economic digestions. The capture of Maduro removes a long-standing geopolitical variable, but it replaces it with the massive uncertainty of nation-building. The promise of US oil companies fixing Venezuelan infrastructure is a bullish signal for the energy services sector, but a bearish anchor for crude prices in the medium term.

Investors should watch the volatility index closely this week. While the initial reaction has been contained to commodities, the precedent of the US “running” a Latin American nation could trigger unforeseen diplomatic friction in the region. The takeaway? Keep an eye on US energy stocks and gold. The chess board has been flipped, and we are just waiting to see where the pieces land.

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The popular cryptocurrency still has a way to go to get back to its historic price level of nearly $69,000, set in November 2021. 

It appears that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are shaking off the doldrums from scandals like the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange and numererous issues with Binance and other exchanges.

In short, the entire unregulated crypto industry was turning into the Wild West, and it prompted regulators to step in.

Some of the key regulatory concerns have been:

1. Investor Protection
   One of the primary regulatory concerns is ensuring the protection of investors and consumers in the cryptocurrency space. Cryptocurrencies are known for their volatility and susceptibility to fraud and scams. Regulatory authorities aim to establish safeguards to prevent fraudulent activities, market manipulation, and Ponzi schemes. They may require cryptocurrency exchanges and other service providers to implement anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) procedures to verify the identity of users.
   
2. Financial Stability
   Governments and financial regulators are concerned about the potential impact of cryptocurrencies on the stability of traditional financial systems. The rapid growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies could pose risks to financial stability if not properly regulated. Authorities may worry about issues such as the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used for money laundering, tax evasion, or as a means to bypass capital controls.
   
3. AML/CFT Compliance:
   Anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) are significant regulatory concerns related to cryptocurrencies. Regulatory bodies often require cryptocurrency businesses to adhere to AML/CFT regulations to prevent these digital assets from being used for illicit purposes. This includes reporting suspicious transactions and complying with international standards for financial regulation.

With regulatory policies kicking in, coupled with the emergence of new cryptocurrency ETFs, Bitcoin and other cryptos are making a comeback. Since October 2023, here’s how some other cryptos have fared:

• Ethereum (ETH/USD) has climbed 51% from $1,548 to $2,340
• XRP (XRP/USD) jumped 36% from .47415 to .64521
• DOGE climbed 68% from 8.267B to 13.883B

Gold Is Also on the Move

Gold has also move up above the key $2,000 level, and is currently priced at $2,029 – up 11 percent since October.

Gold is rising on geopolitical tensions, interest rate concerns and U.S. dollar strength issues.

Conclusion

Gold, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies have all emerged as potential safe haven assets in today’s volatile financial landscape. 

Gold, a traditional store of value for centuries, retains its reputation for stability and is often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. 

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has gained traction as “digital gold” due to its limited supply and decentralized nature, making it an attractive option for those seeking a modern safe haven. 

Cryptocurrencies, as a broader category, offer a diverse range of assets with varying degrees of stability, with some investors considering certain cryptocurrencies as a form of protection against economic turmoil. 

While these assets share the potential for safeguarding wealth during turbulent times, it is important to acknowledge that they also carry risks and uncertainties, and their effectiveness as safe havens can vary depending on the specific economic and geopolitical conditions. As such, individuals and investors must carefully evaluate their risk tolerance and diversify their portfolios accordingly when considering these assets as safe havens.

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With the recent turmoil in the banking industry, cryptocurrencies and continued inflationary pressure, investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven.

As the price of gold rises, it is driving the profitability of many top gold producers, including these mining stocks:

• Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) – With a market cap of 35.141 Billion, Barrick Gold share prices have risen from $15.60 per share up to $20 per share.
• Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) – Jumped from $123 to $157 since February
• Wheaton Precision Metals (WPM) – Rose from $38 to $50 since March

Barrick Gold Corp Daily Chart (Tradingview)

If individual stocks aren’t your thing, then Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) can spread your risk across a wide variety of mining stocks in the gold mining sector. Some of these ETFs include:

• Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – has traveled from $26 to $35 since March
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) – Has moved from $168 to $188 since March

Any way you look at at it, gold has been on the move. How much longer is anyone’s guess, but almost evrey gold stock is at or nearing recent year’s highs.

Stay tuned as we follow developments in this sector.

Spotlight on Gold Mining: Calibre Mining Co. (OTCQX: CXBMF)

Founded in 2010, Calibre Mining Corp. is a Canadian-listed, Americas focused, growing mid-tier gold producer with a strong pipeline of development and exploration opportunities across Nevada and Washington in the USA, and Nicaragua. 

Calibre is focused on delivering sustainable value for shareholders, local communities and all stakeholders through responsible operations and a disciplined approach to growth. 

With a strong balance sheet, a proven management team, strong operating cash flow, accretive development projects and district-scale exploration opportunities Calibre will unlock significant value. (Source: https://calibremining.com)

The rise in gold prices is due in part to global recession fears and inflationary pressures. Gold has long been thought to be a safe haven in uncertain economic times. In recent weeks, a spike in gold prices has been directly proportional to falling U.S. Dollar Index prices.

Calibre’s Share Prices are Tracking Gold Prices.

Not surprisingly, Calibre Mining Corp’s share prices have also risen on nearly the same trajectory from a low of $0.38 cents per share to today’s price of $1.24 – an increase of 226%.  This represents a very strong increase from November’s lows, and just shy of the recent high of $1.38 per share established on March 24, 2022.

If Calibre’s stock performance continues its upward trajectory, and if gold prices continue to move past $2,000, then there could be continued growth in the share prices of Calibre stock.

If you would like to get more information on investing in Calibre Mining Corp., click here for more information on the investment opportunity.

The post <strong>Gold Over $2,000 – Mining Stocks to Watch</strong> appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

Spot prices for gold ran as high as $2,066 in March 2022 before plummeting over 20% down to $1,630 in October of the same year.

Many investors switched to other assets like cryptocurrencies in search of better yields.

Then came the seemingly overnight collapse of the FTX crypto exchange on November 2, 2022, sending its CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried to jail awaiting trial. It’s estimated that more than $8 Billion of customer’s assets vanished in the collapse of FTX.

Gold prices ran up from $1,630 to $1,945 in the months to follow before a pullback in February.

Next came the epic Silicon Valley Bank collapse which is still roiling the financial markets. Bank stocks are getting hammered as investors try to weigh the levels of contagion surrounding the SVB debacle. It doesn’t help that Signature Bank also went under and Credit Suisse appears to be on the ropes.

On the heels of the SVB and Signature collapse, Spot Gold prices shot up from $1,818 to $1,931 within one week.

Is Gold Still Regarded a Safe Haven?

Yes, gold is still widely regarded as a safe haven asset by many investors and financial experts. A safe haven asset is an investment that is expected to retain or increase its value during times of market turmoil or economic uncertainty.

Gold has historically been viewed as a safe haven asset because it is a tangible and scarce commodity that can be easily traded and stored. During times of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often turn to gold as a way to diversify their portfolios and protect themselves against potential losses.

Additionally, gold has a long-standing reputation as a store of value and has been used as a currency and a means of exchange for centuries. It is also considered to be a hedge against inflation, as its price tends to rise when inflation is high.

However, it’s worth noting that while gold has historically performed well during times of market turmoil, its performance can be volatile in the short term and is subject to a wide range of economic and geopolitical factors. As with any investment, it’s important to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

What are the Top 5 Gold ETFs?

Here are the top 5 gold ETFs based on their assets under management (AUM) as of March 2023:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): This is the largest and most widely traded gold ETF, with AUM of over $50 billion. It seeks to track the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical gold held in a secure vault.
2. iShares Gold Trust (IAU): This is the second-largest gold ETF, with AUM of over $25 billion. It also seeks to track the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical gold held in a secure vault.
3. Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL): This is another popular gold ETF, with AUM of over $5 billion. It seeks to track the price of gold bullion and is also backed by physical gold held in a secure vault.
4. Invesco DB Gold Fund (DGL): This is a commodity ETF that seeks to track the performance of gold futures contracts. It has AUM of over $2 billion and provides exposure to the price of gold through a futures-based strategy.

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