Uncategorised Archives - Global Investment Daily https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/category/uncategorised/ Global finance and market news & analysis Wed, 23 Jul 2025 16:13:20 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.3.1 Wall Street Shrugs Off Tariffs https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/wall-street-shrugs-off-tariffs/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/wall-street-shrugs-off-tariffs/#respond Wed, 23 Jul 2025 16:13:19 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=1413 Fundamentals Take the Stage The market has finally decided who gets to sit at the adult table, and for once, it’s not the Fed or the White House. As we head into a packed earnings week, corporate performance is taking center stage. While Trump’s tariff theatrics and Powell drama continue to simmer in the background, […]

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Fundamentals Take the Stage

The market has finally decided who gets to sit at the adult table, and for once, it’s not the Fed or the White House. As we head into a packed earnings week, corporate performance is taking center stage. While Trump’s tariff theatrics and Powell drama continue to simmer in the background, investors are looking toward real numbers and company guidance to justify the rally.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are brushing record highs, but this rally isn’t running on pure optimism. Of the 53 S&P companies that have reported so far, 85% beat expectations, a signal investors are eager to run with. But make no mistake, the risks haven’t vanished. August tariff threats, Fed independence jitters, and seasonal market softness still lurk in the shadows.

In today’s issue, we dig into why earnings are suddenly everything, what investors should be watching this week, and why a quiet shift might be happening beneath the surface. On This Week I Learned, we highlight what analysts get wrong about “beats,” and in the Fun Corner, we break down why Wall Street’s obsession with surprises sometimes borders on stand-up comedy.

This Week I Learned…

When a Beat Isn’t Really a Beat

This week I learned about “earnings beats” that don’t actually mean what you think they mean.

When headlines scream that 85% of S&P 500 companies “beat expectations,” it sounds like the economy is booming. But the fine print tells a different story. Often, these beats are not surprises at all, they’re the result of finely calibrated analyst revisions, company-provided guidance ranges, and a generous dose of what’s called “expectations management.”

Here’s how it usually works: A company quietly lowers forward guidance over the quarter. Analysts follow suit. Then, when the company merely performs as originally planned, it still counts as a beat. It’s financial theatre, minus the popcorn.

This quarter, the median beat was 4%, and the median miss just 3%. That’s not exactly earth-shattering. But the key is perception. Markets are driven less by raw numbers and more by the delta between expectations and reality. Understanding that difference is how professionals separate the noise from the opportunity.

So, next time you hear that “everyone is beating estimates,” ask: Whose estimates? And what changed before earnings day?

The Fun Corner

Where Missing Less Means Winning More

Ever hear the joke about Wall Street’s grading system?

“Company reports record profits, stock drops 8%. Why? Because the profits weren’t record enough.”

Investors live in a world where outcomes don’t measure success, but by expectations. Meet expectations? That’s neutral. Beat expectations? Good. Miss by 1 cent? Catastrophe.

It’s the only place where making more money than last year could still make you a loser if someone thought you’d make slightly more.

This week, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America surprised with better-than-expected trading revenue. And suddenly, they’re market darlings, even though nothing fundamentally changed in their business. They just played the game better.

In short: “If Wall Street ran the Olympics, silver medalists would be accused of disappointing performance.”

Beyond the Noise: What Q2 Earnings Are Telling Us

The noise coming from Washington hasn’t stopped. Between President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and speculation around Jerome Powell’s job security, there’s no shortage of distractions. But investors aren’t flinching, because corporate earnings are giving them something more concrete to focus on.

So far, Q2 has started strong. Earnings from 53 S&P 500 companies show 85% have exceeded analyst estimates, led by strength in banking, trading revenue, and surprisingly resilient consumer spending. That’s helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover near record highs, not a bad consideration given the macro backdrop.

What’s driving this rally isn’t just better results. It’s the absence of worse news. Markets are betting that if Big Tech delivers, especially in terms of AI investment and guidance, the rally has legs. That puts immense weight on companies like Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel, all reporting this week.

Still, cracks exist. While current earnings appear healthy, forward guidance may be cautious, particularly from firms exposed to tariffs. And there’s a growing fear that the Fed, under pressure from both inflation and political interference, could tighten too aggressively later this year.

In short, the market isn’t ignoring risk. It’s choosing to focus on fundamentals, for now. If earnings continue to impress, the rally will likely persist. If they don’t, Washington’s noise will come roaring back.

The Last Say

Confidence, but Not Complacency

As we wrap this week’s edition of The Market Pulse, it’s clear that the stock market is choosing optimism, not recklessness. Earnings are stepping up where policy clarity is lacking. Investors are responding to real performance, not just political promises or threats.

However, this optimism has a limited shelf life. Tariff deadlines in early August, Powell’s tenuous standing, and the historic volatility of late summer months all loom just ahead. The strong early results from banks and Big Tech might support the rally for now, but markets will demand consistency in the coming weeks.

The takeaway? The market is rewarding execution. Companies that demonstrate their ability to navigate uncertainty are being revalued. The rest? They may not get the same grace period.

Investors should keep a close eye on this week’s reports. A strong showing could solidify the narrative that the economy is more resilient than feared. A stumble, though, might shift attention back to Washington faster than you can say “earnings call.”

Until then, fundamentals are in charge. For how long, no one knows. But for now, it’s enough.

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The Stock Market’s Big Lie of 2025 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/the-stock-markets-big-lie-of-2025/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/the-stock-markets-big-lie-of-2025/#respond Tue, 15 Jul 2025 16:55:09 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=1410 Dream Stocks and Danger Signs Markets may not be rational, but they sure are exciting. In 2025, profitability has taken a back seat to potential. This week’s top performers include a lidar company with four straight quarters of losses and a digital health platform running deep in the red, yet their stock prices are flying. […]

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Dream Stocks and Danger Signs

Markets may not be rational, but they sure are exciting. In 2025, profitability has taken a back seat to potential. This week’s top performers include a lidar company with four straight quarters of losses and a digital health platform running deep in the red, yet their stock prices are flying. It’s not just about financial statements anymore. It’s about the narrative, the buzz, and whether you’re the next AI, EV, or quantum breakthrough darling.

Today’s Market Pulse looks under the hood of this speculative engine. Are we back in 2021 or is this a whole new beast? We’ll dig into that in our Main Topic, where we look at why fundamentals are being sidelined and what that means for long-term investors.

In This Week I Learned, we’ll explore how momentum investing became so dominant again and why even seasoned investors keep falling for the “next big thing.” And stick around for The Fun Corner, where we take a quick, humorous look at a “famous” stock that once soared on pure hype and crashed just as fast.

Markets might seem euphoric now, but underneath the surface, signs of strain are building. Let’s unpack what’s really moving stocks this year and how not to get caught in the hype trap.

This Week I Learned…

The Seduction of the Momentum Trade

Momentum trading is recognized as a recurring behavioral phenomenon in financial markets rather than a temporary trend. While momentum strategies have existed for many years, interest in them typically increases during speculative market periods. For example, stocks like AEVA can experience significant gains, such as 500 percent, even in the face of quarterly losses. This behavior illustrates the mechanics of herd behavior in the market.

Momentum works until it doesn’t. The strategy involves buying assets that are already on the rise, under the assumption that they’ll continue to climb. It sounds simple. But the reasons why momentum keeps reemerging are more complex: recency bias, FOMO, and the seductive nature of trending narratives all play a role.

Many of 2025’s story stocks echo the boom of 2021, when meme stocks and pandemic darlings ruled. But there’s a twist. Instead of nostalgia, today’s hype is built around future-facing tech. AI, EVs, quantum, and energy transition plays are the new Pelotons and AMCs.

Momentum can outperform. Academic research supports this. But timing the end of a momentum cycle is nearly impossible. As liquidity ebbs or macro sentiment turns, losses come fast. That’s the danger. This isn’t just about stocks going up. It’s about knowing when the air gets thin.

This week, I learned that even a well-told story can end in silence, and investors need to know when to stop clapping.

The Fun Corner

When Stocks Tell Stories Better Than Screenwriters

What do AEVA, FUBO, and GRPN have in common (besides dramatic stock surges)? None of them made a profit recently, but all of them became investor favorites this year.

Here’s your trivia: In 1999, a company called Pixelon threw a 16 million dollar party featuring KISS and The Who, then collapsed within months. Why? Because it faked its streaming tech and burned investor money trying to cover it up with hype.

Sound familiar?

The joke writes itself:
Q: Why did the unprofitable tech stock bring a megaphone to the earnings call?
A: Because shouting a good story is cheaper than showing a good balance sheet.

Momentum is fun until someone checks the books.

Momentum Over Money

Investors in 2025 are facing a surreal environment. Fundamentals, once sacred, are now optional. In today’s market, telling a compelling story outweighs generating steady profit, and investors are rewarding companies with promises rather than profits.

Take AEVA, the year’s top gainer with a 515 percent return. It hasn’t posted a profit in over a year. It’s not alone. Of the top 50 performers in the Russell 3000, 45 have posted at least one loss in the past four quarters. And yet, they’re the stars of the momentum trade.

What’s powering this? Partly, it’s performance chasing. When a stock doubles, others jump in out of fear of missing more upside. Social media platforms amplify these moves. Platforms like Reddit and X give even niche stocks viral potential. And ETFs like MTUM are adding fuel, gaining 15 percent year to date as momentum becomes self-fulfilling.

But risks are building. Analysts warn that if earnings don’t materialize, these high-fliers could crash hard. Speculation has a cost, and the warning signs, from rising gold prices to bond market jitters, suggest some investors are hedging.

Momentum trades can persist. But they don’t last forever. And when narrative collides with numbers, reality tends to win.

The Last Say

Story First, Profits Later? Maybe.

In this week’s Market Pulse, we’ve unpacked the market’s curious faith in companies that lose money but win headlines. The dream trade is back, and it’s moving fast. Stocks with flashy narratives are drawing big gains while fundamentals are waiting in the wings.

From AEVA to Palantir, the race to find “the next Nvidia” has investors ignoring quarterly reports in favor of potential. This mindset has created winners, but it also recalls painful lessons from the not-so-distant past.

Momentum might keep working until something breaks. The last time it ended, interest rates were the culprit. This time, it could be a weaker labor market, rising bond yields, or simply earnings that don’t show up.

For investors, the choice is between staying with the crowd or stepping back before the music stops. There’s nothing wrong with momentum, but chasing a dream without a deadline can be dangerous.

Next week could bring more gains or the first signs of exhaustion. Either way, remember: stories can move markets, but earnings keep them there.

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Beyond Big Tech: Where’s the Smart Money Going? https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/beyond-big-tech-wheres-the-smart-money-going/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/beyond-big-tech-wheres-the-smart-money-going/#respond Wed, 09 Jul 2025 16:07:03 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=1408 Beyond the Magnificent Seven: The Market’s New Contenders As we enter the second half of 2025, the stock market is exhibiting a refreshing shift. The rally, once dominated by Big Tech, is now expanding its horizons. Sectors like materials, financials, and energy are gaining momentum, indicating a more balanced and potentially sustainable market growth. Small-cap […]

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Beyond the Magnificent Seven: The Market’s New Contenders

As we enter the second half of 2025, the stock market is exhibiting a refreshing shift. The rally, once dominated by Big Tech, is now expanding its horizons. Sectors like materials, financials, and energy are gaining momentum, indicating a more balanced and potentially sustainable market growth.

Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, have also joined the ascent, reflecting increased investor confidence in a broader economic recovery.

Meanwhile, the consumer-discretionary sector, which faced challenges earlier this year, is showing signs of resilience. Despite a 4.2% drop in the first half, the equal-weighted consumer-discretionary index has risen by 2.5%, suggesting that many consumer-related stocks are holding steady.

In this edition, we will look at the changing market and whether consumer stocks might rebound. We will also share an interesting insight into how index structures can change our view of the market. Stay with us for “This Week I Learned” and a light-hearted break in “The Fun Corner.” There are plenty of fresh opportunities in the market.

This Week I Learned…

The Equal-Weight Advantage

This week, I learned about the significance of equal-weighted indices in revealing underlying market strengths.

While the market-cap-weighted consumer-discretionary sector showed a decline, the equal-weighted version told a different story, highlighting the stability of smaller constituents.

This highlights the importance of examining beyond headline figures to comprehend the underlying dynamics at play. If your investing radar is only tuned to the giants like Tesla and Amazon, you might miss the quieter yet steadier gains in sectors that are evolving under the surface.

Investors can find new opportunities by focusing on metrics that treat all companies equally. This approach helps them discover hidden strengths and potential outside of the well-known tech giants. It also serves as a reminder that not all important market signals come from the biggest stocks.

The Fun Corner

Market Metrics and Misconceptions

Why did the investor bring a ladder to the stock exchange?

Because they heard the market was reaching new heights!

While some stocks or sectors may get a lot of attention in the news, it’s important to take a step back. A broader view often shows a more complex situation.

Sometimes, it’s not the biggest players but the collective moves of many smaller ones that shape the market’s direction. A little perspective goes a long way, especially when climbing the ladder of investment insight.

Consumer Stocks: Poised for a Comeback?

The consumer-discretionary sector, encompassing industries like retail, travel, and luxury goods, faced headwinds in the first half of 2025. However, recent data suggests a potential turnaround.

Improved consumer sentiment, a robust job market, and the prospect of interest rate cuts are creating a conducive environment for increased consumer spending.

Companies like McDonald’s, Lululemon, and Airbnb stand to benefit from these trends, potentially leading to a resurgence in the sector. As inflation cools and the wealth effect of a rising stock market builds, Americans may loosen their purse strings just in time for discretionary items to make a comeback.

However, challenges remain. High valuations and uncertainties around trade policies could temper growth. Tesla’s drag on sector performance highlights how concentrated weightings can distort broader trends. And while Amazon has stayed steady, its sheer dominance in the sector makes it harder for the rest to shine.

Investors should approach with cautious optimism, keeping an eye on evolving economic indicators. It’s not just about where the market has been, but where consumer confidence is heading next.

The Last Say

Broadening Horizons

The market’s expansion beyond Big Tech is a welcome development, signaling a more inclusive and potentially stable growth trajectory.

As sectors like consumer-discretionary show signs of revival, investors have new opportunities to diversify and capitalize on emerging trends. The spotlight is shifting from the tech elite to a wider cast of performers, reflecting not just market optimism, but healthier fundamentals.

Being informed and flexible will be crucial for navigating the changes in the second half of 2025.

From small-cap rebounds to consumer resilience, this broader rally may provide a sturdier base for gains ahead. The question now isn’t just which stock will lead—but whether the foundation beneath them can carry this momentum further.

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Could 2024 be a Pivotal Year for Solar and Wind Power? https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/could-2024-be-a-pivotal-year-for-solar-and-wind-power/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/could-2024-be-a-pivotal-year-for-solar-and-wind-power/#respond Thu, 11 Jan 2024 18:55:38 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=1125 In recent years, green energy initiatives in the United States have been gaining unprecedented momentum, poised to reach a pivotal tipping point. Since 2013, the nation has witnessed a remarkable surge in the production of solar, wind, and geothermal power, surpassing three times the output of a decade ago.  This remarkable growth extends across all […]

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In recent years, green energy initiatives in the United States have been gaining unprecedented momentum, poised to reach a pivotal tipping point. Since 2013, the nation has witnessed a remarkable surge in the production of solar, wind, and geothermal power, surpassing three times the output of a decade ago. 

This remarkable growth extends across all 50 states, signaling a widespread commitment to sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore, the Biden Administration has demonstrated its dedication to this cause by allocating a substantial $300 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funds specifically earmarked for green energy initiatives. 

  • As the nation faces pressing environmental challenges and strives for energy independence, these developments signal a promising shift towards a more sustainable and eco-friendly future.

    According to EnvironmetAmerica, here are the topline findings in wind and solar energy production in the United States:
  • The United States produced enough wind energy to power nearly 41 million typical homes in 2022 – 2.6 times as much wind energy as in 2013.
  • The U.S. produced enough solar energy to power 19 million homes in 2022 – nearly 12 times as much solar energy as in 2013.
  • The U.S. had 8.9 gigawatts of battery energy storage at the end of 2022, 60 times as much as in 2013 and 85 percent more than at the end of 2021, helping to support the use of more renewable energy and keep the lights on during extreme weather and times of grid stress.
  • Energy efficiency improvements installed in 2021 will save 300 terawatt-hours of power over their lifetimes – enough to power 28 million homes for a year. Energy efficiency savings increased by about 20% between 2013 and 2021, the last year for which information is available.
  • Americans bought more than 925,000 plug-in electric vehicles in 2022 – a more than 10-fold increase from 2013. Meanwhile, the number of electric vehicle chargers nationwide exceeded 151,000 – a nearly 18-fold increase from 2013.
  • 14 states produce the equivalent of 30% or more of their electricity consumption from wind, solar and geothermal, up from just two states in 2013.

At current levels, solar and wind power generates enough electricity to power 60 million typical households. When you consider that there are an estimated 131.43 households in the United States, that’s a huge step toward clean energy and a reduced dependence on fossil fuels.

Our Top Solar and WInd Energy Stocks for 2024

Solar Energy: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is well-positioned to emerge as an industry leader in 2024 due to several strategic advantages. 

As a leading manufacturer of thin-film photovoltaic modules, First Solar boasts a technology that is both efficient and cost-effective, offering a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving solar energy market. With a strong commitment to sustainability and a focus on reducing its carbon footprint, the company aligns with the growing global demand for clean energy solutions. Moreover, First Solar’s consistent innovation in solar technology, a robust project pipeline, and its expanding global footprint indicate a solid growth trajectory. 

Its ability to navigate regulatory challenges and adapt to evolving market dynamics positions the company favorably as the world continues to shift toward renewable energy sources, making First Solar a prominent player in shaping the future of the solar industry in 2024 and beyond.

In a recent article, Reuters reported that First Solar plans to sell $700 million in Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits to payments firm Fiserv). These tax credits are designed to incentivize domestic production of clean energy products while reducing dependence on Chinese-made components.

TipRanks has issued a Strong Buy on FSLR, with 21 analysts issuing price targets between a low of $185 to a high of $275 by the end of 2024. The average price target is $230.68.

Wind Energy: General Electric (GE)

General Electric (GE) is well on its way to becoming a dominant player in the wind energy sector in 2024 due to its strong commitment to innovation, vast experience, and global presence. GE has been a pioneer in wind turbine technology for decades and has continually invested in research and development to improve the efficiency and reliability of its wind turbines. This dedication to innovation positions GE to offer cutting-edge wind energy solutions, making its products highly competitive in the market.

GE has a significant global footprint, with wind energy projects and installations in various countries around the world. Its expansive reach allows the company to leverage its expertise and provide comprehensive wind energy solutions, from turbine manufacturing to grid integration and maintenance services. This global presence not only enhances GE’s market share but also enables it to adapt to the diverse needs and regulatory environments of different regions, making it a versatile and adaptable player in the wind energy space.

Additionally, GE’s commitment to sustainability aligns with the increasing global demand for clean energy sources. As governments and businesses prioritize renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions, GE’s focus on wind energy positions it as a key contributor to achieving these sustainability goals. 

With a combination of advanced technology, global reach, and a dedication to environmental responsibility, General Electric is poised to play a dominant role in the wind energy industry in 2024 and beyond.

TipRanks has issued a Strong Buy on GE, with 12 analysts issuing price targets between a low of $120 to a high of $150 by the end of 2024. The average price target is $140.18.

Conclusion

The potential for solar and wind power to supply the majority of American households with clean and sustainable energy within the next few years is increasingly promising. The renewable energy sector has seen remarkable growth and innovation, driven by advances in technology, declining costs, and a growing commitment to combating climate change. Solar and wind power offer a compelling solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on fossil fuels, and transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

One of the key drivers of this potential lies in the rapid expansion of solar and wind infrastructure across the country. Investments in solar panels and wind turbines have become more affordable, making them accessible to a wider range of homeowners and businesses. Moreover, federal and state incentives, along with supportive policies, have encouraged the adoption of renewable energy systems. The growth of distributed energy resources, such as residential solar panels, has further empowered households to generate their own clean electricity and even sell surplus energy back to the grid, thereby reducing dependence on conventional energy sources.

Additionally, the scalability of solar and wind power generation makes them well-suited to meet the energy demands of American households. With continued advancements in energy storage technology, intermittent generation issues associated with renewables are being addressed. The ability to store excess energy during periods of high generation and deploy it when needed ensures a more reliable and consistent energy supply. 

As we witness ongoing investments and commitment to clean energy solutions, there is a strong likelihood that a significant majority of American households will be powered by solar and wind within the next few years, contributing to a more sustainable and environmentally responsible energy landscape.

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ARM, BIRK, CART Update. How are These New IPOs Performing? https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/arm-birk-cart-update-how-are-these-new-ipos-performing/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/arm-birk-cart-update-how-are-these-new-ipos-performing/#respond Thu, 09 Nov 2023 15:29:53 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=1077 On October 18, 2023 we published an update on three of the hottest IPOs for 2023. Chip design firm Arm Holdings (ARM), grocery delivery service Instacart (CART) and the classic sandal maker Birkenstock (BIRK) were the companies that mad a huge splash after a months-long IPO drought. All three of these stocks came out of […]

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On October 18, 2023 we published an update on three of the hottest IPOs for 2023. Chip design firm Arm Holdings (ARM), grocery delivery service Instacart (CART) and the classic sandal maker Birkenstock (BIRK) were the companies that mad a huge splash after a months-long IPO drought.

All three of these stocks came out of the gate seeking what they believed was fair valuation. In each case, the stock price plummeted coming out of the gate.

How have they performed since their initial drop? Let’s take a closer look.

Arm Holdings (ARM)

ARM Holdings entered the hot chip and semiconductor market on September 14, 2023 priced at $56 dollars per share. It ran up to $69 within one day before it came crashing down to a low of $49.87. 

Last Report – October 18, 2023

ARM fell from a high of $69 down to a tight range between $50 and $56. Stochastics were oversold, suggesting a potential price reversal back to the upside

Updated Report November 9, 2023

After a brief period breaking below the $50 price level,  ARM is currently traveling near the upper boundary of its historical price range. Will price breakout to the upside, or will the $56 price level hold up as resistance? That remains to be seen, but the stochastic oscillator shows ARM being extremely overbought, signalling that a pullback in price may be imminent.

Instacart (CART)

The popular grocery delivery company that flourished during the height of the pandemic launched its IPO September 19, 2023 five days after ARM. The stock hit the market priced at $42 and plummeted down to a low of $24.50.  It then settled into a price range between 24.50 and $27.

Last Report – October 18, 2023

Updated Report November 9, 2023

CART just broke through the upper end of the $24.50-$27 price range, and is currently trading at $27.24 going into earnings. Will it start to grind its way up, or will it pullback to its historical price range? The earnings report could weigh heavily into the short-term direction of CART. Stochastics are nearing overbought territory, so keep an eye on a potential short-term price pullback.

Birkenstock (BIRK)

On October 11, 2023 German sandal maker Birkenstock (BIRK) launched its IPO. 

Last Report – October 18, 2023


Just like ARM and CART, BIRK debuted on Wall St. priced at $42 dollars per share, before quickly pulling back to $36 dollars.

After a three-day freefall, BIRK rallied back for 2 days, closing at $39.28 on October 17.

Updated Report November 9, 2023



Since our last report on October 18, BIRK has risen nearly 15% in price from $36.78 to $42.21. BIRK is now trading above its IPO prce of $41.

Conclusion

ARM, CART and BIRK all had rocky debuts on the Fall of 2023, but all three of them appear to have established a floor in pricing and have been grinding their way upward.

Of these three new IPOs, Birkenstock has shown the best performance to date.

We will re-visit these IPOs one full year after their debuts.

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The Meatless Meat Boom is Just Getting Started https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/the-meatless-meat-boom-is-just-getting-started/ https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/the-meatless-meat-boom-is-just-getting-started/#respond Tue, 20 Oct 2020 13:58:22 +0000 https://globalinvestmentdaily.com/?p=363 There is a meatless war brewing, and the leading protagonists are slugging it out in a bid to be crowned champion of the  alternative meats industry. In one corner is Wall Street darling, Beyond Meat Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND), the certified vegan brand that has been serving up meat-like adaptations of burger patties and sausages. In the […]

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There is a meatless war brewing, and the leading protagonists are slugging it out in a bid to be crowned champion of the  alternative meats industry. In one corner is Wall Street darling, Beyond Meat Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND), the certified vegan brand that has been serving up meat-like adaptations of burger patties and sausages. In the opposite corner is a fierce competitor, California-based Impossible Foods, a private player famed for the impossible burger and impossible pork.

But this playing field is about to become more crowded as plant-based food 2.0 throws up new players who will have learned from the mistakes of the pioneers. 

Still, last year was an epic one for the fake meat industry: In the space of just 12 months, vegan meats went from something very few Americans had even heard of to something that 40% had actually given a try.

It all started in the spring of 2019 after Impossible Foods struck strategic partnerships with Qdoba, Burger King and dozens of other restaurants and franchises. 

Soon thereafter, Beyond Meat started selling its products at several large restaurants including Subway, Del Taco (NASDAQ:TACO), Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNKN) and more recently KFC (NYSE:YUM). 

Although at first both companies entered the mainstream fast-food market by selling burgers, they have since launched more novel products such as Beyond’s ground beef and KFC chicken to Impossible’s sausages.

Source: Vox

The Trends Behind the Trend

Meat is a huge business in the United States.

According to the National Chicken Council, in 2018, Americans consumed 110 pounds of beef and pork; 94 pounds of poultry and another 16 pounds of commercial fish and shell-fish per capita for a combined 220 pounds of meat–more than 50 pounds higher than what they consumed in 1960.

That’s a colossal amount of meat, placing America second behind only Australia on the list of the world’s biggest per capita meat consumers.

This love affair with meat has helped build a $1.4-trillion industry, and meat alternatives are now coming in to stake their claim in this mammoth market.

How big could this budding sector grow?

Currently, the U.S. plant-based food market is valued at $5B with the plant-based meat sector approaching $1B. However, the sector has the potential to grow much bigger if the growth trajectory of plant-based dairy foods is any indication. 

Plant-based dairy foods have managed to garner some 14% of the dairy market, with plant-based food retail sales now growing 5x faster than total food sales. If vegan meat is able to replicate this feat, it could balloon to a $200B industry in the near future.

Indeed, sales of plant-based meat surged 280% at the height of Covid-19 thanks to widespread meat shortages and rampant closure of slaughterhouses around the world. 

Further, people are becoming increasingly wary of ‘animal-borne illnesses’ with the origin of the novel virus pinned on bats which spread it to humans in one of the deadliest cases of zoonotic spillover.

Here are the top trends that could power a vegan meat boom over the next decade.

#1 Health-conscious consumers

Over the past decade, global consumers have increasingly been opting for health foods with the global health and wellness food market poised to expand by $236B during 2020-2024 period, good for a CAGR of 6%.

Changing consumer tastes and preferences inevitably elicit the big question: Is plant-based meat a healthier choice than animal meat?

Some vegan meat skeptics have pointed out that many of these meat alternatives are highly processed and do not deserve the “health halo effect” they tend to receive simply on account of being vegan. Some studies have concluded that some vegan meats have calorie, fat and sodium content comparable to or even higher than beef. Still, the health evidence seems to tilt more in favor of vegan meats than animal meat. According to a large-scale 2016 Harvard study, processed red meat has been linked to significantly higher death rates than plant protein. The Harvard researchers found that plant proteins appear to be most protective from deaths linked to heart disease, especially among people with unhealthy benefits including smoking, heavy alcohol intake, overweight/obesity, and physical inactivity.

A total of 131,000 participants took part in the Harvard study which tracked them over 32 years. 

More and more people though are opting for vegan meat due to another big reason: They are healthier for the environment.

Beyond Meat says it takes about 41 square feet of land and 58 gallons of water to produce one 0.25-pound beef burger, not to mention that our 1.4 billion head of cattle are responsible for 40% of our annual methane budget–a gas that’s 80X more potent than CO2 at trapping the sun’s heat.

A recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey revealed that 35% of respondents said they opted for plant-based protein due to health or nutrition reasons while 30% did the same for environmental reasons.

Yet another reason why more people are choosing plant-based meats: Fake meats are getting ever closer to the real thing.

Meat is a highly complex substance and incredibly difficult to synthesize artificially. Nevertheless, plants contain protein, fat, water and trace materials–the four main building blocks of meat. Further, scientists have made rapid progress making plant-based meats that are virtually indistinguishable from beef for the average consumer.

That’s a critical milestone because experts agree that taste will be the big make-or-break factor for the vegan meat industry. The Beyond Burger and Impossible Burger have received positive reviews at Food & Wine while traditional veggie burgers have scored much lower.

The most bullish finding: More than half of respondents, both young and older folks, who have tried plant-based meats say they are likely to come back for more.

Source: Vox

#2 Ballooning market

Fake meat stocks have lately gone parabolic, with Beyond Meat leading the arena with a 145% gain in the year-to-date and 640% since its May 2019 IPO thanks to continuing robust topline growth.

Beyond Meat revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 clocked in at $0.113B, good for a 68.53% year-over-year increase while revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2020 was $0.401B, a 142.58% Y/Y increase.

Bullish Wall Street analysts have pointed to the rapid growth of the total addressable market of alternative meats. Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer has estimated that Beyond could capture about 4.5% of global market share of alternative meat over the next decade, which would imply a 3,000% revenue jump.

As we have pointed above, the alternative meat industry could balloon to a $200B industry if vegan meats are able to grow as fast as their plant-based dairy sector brethren.

#3 Meat-loving China

Although China is home to 18.5% of the world’s population, the country consumes 27% of the world-wide meat production. China’s love-affair with meat has led some analysts to believe that it could become an important market for vegan meat companies once the Chinese become more aware of the health and environmental impact of meat products.

Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat have already shown strong intentions to capitalize on this market with Beyond Meat previously announcing plans to commence vegan meat production in China by 2020-end. Impossible Foods’s sausages could also find a ready market there considering that China currently consumes the largest amount of pork of any country in the world.

Stocks to Buy

The meatless meat boom has helped vegan meat stocks go ballistic, leading to a cross-section of Wall Street warning that some have turned into cult stocks whose share runs have outpaced their fundamentals.

Beyond Meat is frequently in the news due to its huge runup since its IPO. Lately, BYND has been slipping after Bernstein lowered the producer to an Underperform rating after having previously slotted it at Market Perform. The analyst’s $136 price target represents 26% downside to current price.

Despite valuation concerns, the long-term outlook for the industry appears bright with the long growth runways allowing many players time to grow into their steep valuations.

The top picks in this sector include:

  • Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND)
  • Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN)
  • ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG)
  • Kellogg (NYSE:K)
  • Maple Leaf Foods (OTCMKTS:MLFNF)
  • Forum Merger II (NASDAQ:FMCI)

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