A strange thing happened on the way to the government shutdown: investors got bullish on bitcoin and gold. While Washington bickers, markets are making moves — and the debasement trade is having a moment.

We’re now witnessing a market theme that’s less about short-term headlines and more about long-term conviction. Think of it as the investment world’s quiet rebellion against political dysfunction, persistent deficits, and shaky monetary policy. With real interest rates sliding, inflation lingering, and the U.S. fiscal picture looking ever more precarious, investors are rotating out of fiat currencies and into assets with perceived intrinsic value. And right now, that means gold, bitcoin, and a growing mistrust of the dollar’s staying power.

One thing’s clear: investors aren’t waiting for Washington to figure things out. They’re voting with their wallets.

This Week I Learned…

The Quiet Power Behind the Debasement Boom

This week I learned that individual investors, not institutions, are leading the charge on the debasement trade, and they’re doing it with ETFs.

In a world of algorithmic trading and hedge fund headlines, it’s easy to overlook the everyday investor. But according to data from J.P. Morgan, it’s the retail crowd that kickstarted the current surge into bitcoin and gold. ETF flows into both assets began accelerating back in late 2024, right before the last presidential election, and haven’t looked back since. Bitcoin led the way, with momentum building after President Trump’s tariff announcement in April. Gold caught up quickly by August.

It’s rare to see such alignment between two very different assets. One is centuries old, the other still facing questions about its staying power. But both are united under a common concern: fiat currencies might not be the safe haven they once were.

Why does this matter? Because retail flows are often sticky, driven by belief more than balance sheet metrics. And with concerns growing over inflation, fiscal irresponsibility, and central bank independence, these trades may be more than just reactive. They may represent a lasting shift in how everyday investors think about value.

The Fun Corner

A Gold Bar Walks Into a Portfolio

Gold just hit a record high, but have you ever stopped to consider what that actually buys you? At current prices, one standard 400-ounce gold bar, the kind stored in central banks, is worth over $1.56 million. That’s not just portfolio protection, that’s enough to buy 3 average homes in the Midwest, 1 hyperinflated avocado toast in San Francisco, and still have some change left for a gold-plated espresso machine.

Here’s the kicker: if you stacked those 400-ounce bars to match the height of the Empire State Building, it would be worth more than $1.1 billion, but also a nightmare for your chiropractor.

Moral of the story? Diversification is smart, but maybe don’t try stacking your retirement plan.

The Higher It Goes…

The phrase “debasement trade” might sound dramatic, but in 2025, it’s one of the most rational plays out there. It’s built on one powerful idea: if the U.S. dollar continues to lose purchasing power, investors need alternatives. And right now, those alternatives are gold and bitcoin.

This movement didn’t begin overnight. It started picking up steam in late 2024, gaining real momentum as the government shutdown loomed. But it’s more than a temporary reaction. Structural concerns are driving the shift: rising deficits, political dysfunction, inflation that just won’t fully retreat, and growing doubts about the Fed’s independence.

As the dollar weakens, down roughly 10 percent this year, both gold and bitcoin have soared. Bitcoin topped $125,000 for the first time ever. Gold just logged its 41st record high of the year. These aren’t anomalies. They’re data points in a longer-term rotation away from fiat and toward assets seen as harder to manipulate.

ETF flow data confirms this isn’t just an institutional story. Retail investors are out front, and institutional money is starting to follow. Some analysts project bitcoin could hit $181,000 within a year. Others see gold breaching $4,000 by year-end. These are not hype calls. They’re based on demand dynamics and deep concerns over fiscal sustainability.

There’s risk here, of course. The dollar hasn’t collapsed, and shutdowns don’t guarantee upside in gold and bitcoin. But in an era where trust in central banks and governments is eroding, the debasement trade is less a speculation and more a recalibration.

Investors are no longer betting on growth. They’re hedging against erosion.

The Last Say

Not Just a Shutdown Story

If there’s one lesson from this week, it’s that markets have stopped waiting for clarity from Washington. The surge in gold and bitcoin isn’t just a short-term trade reacting to a government shutdown. It’s a signal of deeper shifts in investor psychology.

This isn’t about panic. It’s about positioning. Whether you see gold as a time-tested safe haven or bitcoin as the new digital vault, the core belief behind the debasement trade is that something fundamental has changed. Investors are less confident in the ability of governments to manage debt, inflation, and economic policy responsibly.

What’s striking is how individual investors led this trend before institutional players followed. It’s a reminder that markets don’t always move top-down. Sometimes, they move with the quiet conviction of a large and motivated crowd.

The government shutdown may pass, but the conditions that made the debasement trade popular, and perhaps essential, remain. High deficits. Political dysfunction. Currency risk. If those aren’t addressed, don’t be surprised if we’re talking about gold at $4,500 and bitcoin at $150,000 sooner than expected.

Whether you’re in or out of these trades, the key takeaway is clear: the market is voting, and it’s losing faith in fiat.

The post The Government Shut Down. Gold Went Up. Coincidence? appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

September is often a troublemaker for investors, but this year’s script has flipped. U.S. equities held their ground, avoiding the seasonal stumble that usually drags portfolios lower. Yet, just as traders were hoping to close the quarter on a steadier note, politics barged in. A looming U.S. government shutdown threatens to pull the rug from under market optimism.

The timing could not be worse. Investors were already laser-focused on this Friday’s jobs report, a release expected to clarify whether the labor market is cooling or merely pausing. Without it, Wall Street would be trading in the dark, forced to make decisions without the usual playbook of fresh data. And in a market hypersensitive to every hint of inflation or growth, missing information can be just as destabilizing as bad news itself.

Stay tuned, because when the flow of official data stalls, the market has a habit of inventing its own narrative, often with costly consequences.

This Week I Learned…

When Silence Moves Markets

This week I learned that markets sometimes fear silence more than bad news. At first glance, a government shutdown sounds like a bureaucratic headache with furloughed workers, stalled services, and delayed paychecks. But for Wall Street, the real sting comes from the sudden blackout of economic data.

Consider the jobs report. Traders pore over every line, from headline payrolls to average hourly earnings, to gauge the economy’s direction. Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and equity strategies all depend on the numbers. Without them, investors are left to guess, and markets do not like guesswork.

History shows how disruptive this can be. During the 2013 shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed its September employment report by nearly three weeks. In the 2018 to 2019 episode, certain agencies ground to a halt, forcing investors to fly blind on consumer and housing data. In both cases, markets grew more volatile not because conditions worsened, but because uncertainty ballooned.

This matters beyond Wall Street. Pension funds, corporate treasurers, and even small business owners often rely on government data to make financial decisions. Withholding it, whether by shutdown or political maneuvering, creates ripples across the economy.

So this week, investors are not just bracing for political noise. They are grappling with what happens when a data-driven system suddenly loses its bearings. After all, bad numbers at least provide direction. Silence provides none.

The Fun Corner

Data Blackout Humor

Traders often joke that the fastest way to move markets is not by releasing data but by not releasing it. 

Imagine this:

Two analysts walk into a trading floor. The first says, “Did you see the jobs report?”
The second replies, “No, the government shut down.”
The first shrugs: “Perfect. Now I can forecast anything and call it consensus.”

Humor aside, there is a serious edge here. Markets thrive on numbers, and without them, speculation takes over. That is when half-baked theories, unverified charts, and sudden rumors can move billions in capital. One strategist quipped during the 2019 shutdown that “Twitter was the new Bureau of Labor Statistics,” which tells you just how quickly confidence erodes when official sources go dark.

The funny truth? In the absence of data, imagination becomes the most volatile asset on Wall Street.

The Higher It Goes…

September was supposed to confirm its reputation as a tough month for investors. Instead, stocks defied expectations, posting gains even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reminded the world that equities remain “fairly highly valued.” Yet the final week of the month has brought a new wrinkle with an increasingly likely U.S. government shutdown.

At first glance, shutdowns often look less dramatic for markets than headlines suggest. History shows that stocks and bonds typically recover even before the government reopens, as investors shift attention to other drivers. But this time, the impact could be sharper because of its interference with the flow of crucial economic data.

The September jobs report was already billed as a market-moving release, given ongoing scrutiny of labor trends. President Trump’s abrupt firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner last month has heightened focus on whether the report might show further weakness. If the shutdown delays the release, investors will be left trading blind on one of the quarter’s most critical data points. Inflation figures due October 3 and October 15 could also be pushed back.

Meanwhile, investors are quietly rotating. Profits are being taken from megacap tech names that powered this year’s AI surge, with energy stocks emerging as short-term winners. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, a proxy for big-tech momentum, has gained 18.4 percent year-to-date but slipped last week. Energy rose nearly 5 percent in the same stretch, albeit from a lower base.

The housing market remains another pressure point. Portfolio strategists warn that weakness there could magnify investor jitters if data delays persist. Still, analysts suggest that buy-the-dip appetite remains intact, hinting that any pullbacks may be shallow.

In short, while shutdowns may not cripple markets in the long run, the immediate effect of losing access to trusted data could leave traders navigating the coming weeks with less confidence and more volatility.

The Last Say

Markets Do Not Like Guessing Games

The big story of the week is not just whether Congress can avoid a shutdown, but how markets will respond to the missing information. Investors often say they can price in almost anything except uncertainty. And that is exactly what delayed jobs or inflation reports create.

For now, equities remain resilient. Investors are trimming their exposure to stretched valuations in tech and diversifying into sectors such as energy. Bonds have shown signs of stabilization after Powell’s remarks, while housing remains a concern to monitor. None of these themes are disastrous in isolation. But combined with a data blackout, they can spark second-guessing across portfolios.

Shutdowns eventually come to an end, but the damage is often psychological. Markets hate trading without a map. The risk is not that the numbers will be bad, but that investors will make decisions in the dark, fueling unnecessary swings.

This week’s takeaway is simple: do not confuse the absence of information with stability. Investors will fill the gap with their own narratives, and that is where mistakes multiply. As the quarter closes, discipline and patience matter more than ever.

The post Wall Street’s Nightmare: Trading Blind in a Shutdown appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

Just when you thought the markets couldn’t climb any higher, they do. Major US indexes are printing fresh The Federal Reserve has finally pulled the trigger. Its first rate cut in nine months is now official, and investors are already moving on. After months of second-guessing every Powell utterance, it seems the market’s favorite central banker just handed Wall Street a permission slip to stop obsessing over rates and start paying attention to what really matters: corporate earnings, economic momentum, and the outlook ahead.

This week, we’re seeing an encouraging narrative take shape. Analysts are lifting S&P 500 earnings estimates, a rare trend during the quarter, economic projections are defying labor softness, and optimism about a so-called “soft landing” is no longer whispered theory but a forecasted baseline. But before you get too comfortable, remember: lofty valuations still demand results.

Let’s cut through the noise and focus on what drives value. Because now, more than ever, attention pays.

This Week I Learned…

When Analysts Buck the Trend, You Should Pay Attention

This week I learned that when Wall Street analysts raise earnings forecasts during a quarter rather than trim them as usual, it’s a strong signal investors shouldn’t ignore.

Here’s why it matters. Typically, earnings estimates start high and gradually fall as the quarter progresses and more information becomes available. That’s just how analyst conservatism works. But this time, estimates for Q3 S&P 500 earnings have been inching upward as the quarter progressed. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings expectations recently climbed to $67.77 per share, up from $67.32 in June, a 0.7% increase.

That’s not just statistical trivia. It’s a window into analyst sentiment and corporate communication. As Mercer’s Jay Love notes, it likely means executives are offering upbeat outlooks behind closed doors and analysts are reacting in real time.

The kicker: this shift is occurring while the labor market is showing signs of softening. That divergence is unusual and could reflect underlying strength in consumer spending, tech profitability, or both. For investors, the current rally may have more legs than the skeptics believe.

The Fun Corner

 The Laugh You Can Expense as Research

Why did the investor stop worrying and love the earnings season?

Because the Fed gave him a rate cut and told him to focus on earnings instead, and he took it literally.

Here’s a fun fact: according to decades of FactSet data, earnings expectations almost always decline during a quarter. But in just 12 percent of quarters over the last 15 years have they increased. And, as you might expect, those rare quarters tend to coincide with stronger-than-expected market gains.

Call it the earnings optimism anomaly. Or maybe it’s just the market behaving like that one kid in class who studies harder after getting an A.

Rate cuts may get headlines, but it’s earnings revisions that often steal the show.

The Higher It Goes…

Now that the Fed has finally cut rates, with more “risk-management” cuts likely in the pipeline, the spotlight is swinging back to fundamentals. And in 2025, that means one thing: earnings.

The Fed’s September projections painted a surprisingly upbeat picture. Growth is intact, recession isn’t on the radar, and Powell sounds increasingly confident in a soft landing. But this confidence comes with a message. Investors need to start evaluating what really drives equity prices from here on out.

Right now, corporate earnings are showing momentum. S&P 500 profit expectations for Q3 have increased during the quarter, a rare and telling trend. If earnings meet expectations, we’re looking at the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, with tech companies leading the charge once again. The “Magnificent Seven” are still pulling most of the weight.

This raises two key implications for investors. First, it validates the current market rally, which has largely been driven by anticipation of rate cuts and AI-fueled tech strength. Second, it forces a closer look at valuation. High multiples are only sustainable if earnings deliver, and so far, they have.

Beyond earnings, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows Q3 growth at 3.3 percent, up sharply from earlier forecasts. And despite a slowdown in hiring, consumer spending and manufacturing data are holding firm. For now, the market is walking the tightrope between high expectations and supportive fundamentals.

What comes next? The next earnings season will test whether this confidence holds. Watch for commentary on AI, tariffs, and inflation risks. All of these could shift sentiment fast.

But for today, one thing is clear. Rate policy has taken a back seat. From here forward, it’s about earnings and execution.

The Last Say

Focus: Earnings Ahead

With the Fed stepping back and earnings stepping forward, the market has found its next obsession and it’s not macro policy.

This week gave us more than just a rate cut. It delivered a shift in investor psychology. We’ve spent most of 2025 debating “will they or won’t they” when it comes to monetary easing. Now that we’ve got an answer, the real question becomes: can companies live up to the valuation premium the market has granted them?

Early signs are promising. Analysts are unusually upbeat, economic projections are holding firm, and big tech still has momentum. But this rally is no longer floating on Fed optimism alone. It now depends on execution, earnings execution that is.

As we close this week’s issue, here’s the takeaway. In a world of data, narratives, and shifting priorities, it’s the numbers that carry weight. Watch the profit margins. Track the forward guidance. Pay attention to revision trends.

Because the market has made its move. Now it’s time for the companies to justify the price tags investors are willing to pay.

The post The Fed Made Its Move. Now It’s the Market’s Turn appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

September is back, and with it comes the usual market superstition: historically, this is the worst month of the year for U.S. stocks. You’ll hear it everywhere from trading desks to TikTok that September spells doom for equities. But this time, the script may not be so rigid.

After a red-hot August, led by a surprising surge in small caps and cooling inflation data, we’re entering September with the S&P 500 holding strong above its 200-day moving average, a technical signpost that tends to alter the seasonal narrative. In short, when markets come into September with momentum, they tend to leave September in better shape too.

Add in an anticipated Fed rate cut, mixed signals from the labor market, and still-low volatility (hello, VIX), and we’re suddenly dealing with a setup that looks less like seasonal weakness and more like an inflection point. The question is whether investors get the “soft landing” they’re hoping for or if a storm cloud is hiding behind this calm.

In this edition of The Market Pulse, we’re diving into why this September might defy the data. You’ll also discover what moving averages actually tell us in This Week I Learned, get a dose of trading humor in The Fun Corner, and leave with one clear takeaway in The Last Say.

Let’s get to it. 

This Week I Learned…

The Moving Average Myth and the Math Behind Market Mood

You’ve probably heard the term “200-day moving average” tossed around like gospel on Wall Street, especially when predicting market momentum. But what does it really mean, and why does it matter more in some months like, say, September?

This week I learned that the S&P 500’s position relative to its 200-day moving average is a lot more than just a technical trivia point. When the index is above its 200-day moving average heading into September, the odds shift drastically. The market has posted an average gain of 1.3% and ended the month higher 60% of the time since 1950.

But when it’s below, that average return plummets to minus 4.2% with a dismal 15% win rate.

This isn’t just some random seasonal quirk. It reflects investor confidence, institutional strategy, and long-term capital positioning. Big funds tend to align their bets with the trend, and the 200-day line acts like a psychological border between bullish conviction and caution.

So yes, seasonal trends still exist, but their predictive power hinges on where the market is when it enters the month. Context, as always, is everything.

The Fun Corner

Why September Traders Carry Umbrellas

Want to guess what September and stop-loss orders have in common?

They’re both used in case of sudden storms.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in September less than 45% of the time. That’s worse than flipping a coin. No wonder traders treat the month like a cautious camping trip — gear up, expect rain, and hope for sunshine.

But here’s a fun stat. When the market enters September with momentum, meaning it’s above the 200-day moving average, returns not only improve, they flip entirely to become statistically positive.

So maybe the moral isn’t to fear September. It’s to fear not knowing what condition the market is in when it gets here.

September Scare or Setup? Why This Year Might Break the Pattern

Investors treat September like the haunted house of the calendar, and for good reason. Historical data shows the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all perform poorly on average during this month. Since 1897, the Dow has declined an average of 1.1% in September, while the S&P and Nasdaq have performed only slightly better or worse, depending on the benchmark.

However, this time, things may not unfold as expected.

For one, U.S. equities came into September riding high. August posted impressive gains across the board. The Dow rose 3.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, and the Nasdaq added 1.6%. Small-cap stocks even saw their best August in 25 years. Historically, when markets are already trending upward going into September, that infamous seasonal weakness tends to fade.

More importantly, the S&P 500 is currently sitting well above its 200-day moving average, a key threshold that, when crossed to the upside, changes both institutional behavior and technical expectations. Since 1950, years when the S&P is above that line in early September have seen average gains for the month, not losses.

Layer on top of that a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, expected at the upcoming September 16–17 meeting, and you’ve got a macro backdrop that looks more promising than previous years. Inflation pressures have cooled, the labor market is showing signs of slowing in a good way, and the VIX is sitting at its lowest point this year.

Of course, that last point might also be a red flag. A low VIX often precedes a spike in volatility, particularly as we approach the fall. That’s why many analysts are calling this “the calm before the storm.”

But if there’s a year when September might flip the script, this could be it.

The Last Say

The Calm, The Storm, and the Setup Ahead

September is supposed to bring chaos. But what if it’s setting the stage for something better?

This week’s newsletter took us through the data, highlighting how, historically, this month is the weakest on the calendar. However, under specific market conditions, it has the potential to perform just fine. The key signal is momentum into the month, and right now, the market has it.

With the S&P 500 solidly above its 200-day moving average and investor optimism driven by anticipated Fed easing, the traditional September slump might stay on the sidelines. That said, volatility always lurks nearby, especially when the VIX is sitting low and macroeconomic uncertainty remains high.

We’re walking into September with both optimism and caution. The coming weeks will bring a crucial jobs report and a Fed decision, both of which could quickly change the market narrative. But until then, the numbers say we’re in better shape than the calendar would have you believe.

We’ll leave you with this. Patterns matter, but conditions matter more. Let the history books guide you, but let the charts and fundamentals lead.

The post Is the Market About to Break the September Curse? appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

The market has finally decided who gets to sit at the adult table, and for once, it’s not the Fed or the White House. As we head into a packed earnings week, corporate performance is taking center stage. While Trump’s tariff theatrics and Powell drama continue to simmer in the background, investors are looking toward real numbers and company guidance to justify the rally.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are brushing record highs, but this rally isn’t running on pure optimism. Of the 53 S&P companies that have reported so far, 85% beat expectations, a signal investors are eager to run with. But make no mistake, the risks haven’t vanished. August tariff threats, Fed independence jitters, and seasonal market softness still lurk in the shadows.

In today’s issue, we dig into why earnings are suddenly everything, what investors should be watching this week, and why a quiet shift might be happening beneath the surface. On This Week I Learned, we highlight what analysts get wrong about “beats,” and in the Fun Corner, we break down why Wall Street’s obsession with surprises sometimes borders on stand-up comedy.

This Week I Learned…

When a Beat Isn’t Really a Beat

This week I learned about “earnings beats” that don’t actually mean what you think they mean.

When headlines scream that 85% of S&P 500 companies “beat expectations,” it sounds like the economy is booming. But the fine print tells a different story. Often, these beats are not surprises at all, they’re the result of finely calibrated analyst revisions, company-provided guidance ranges, and a generous dose of what’s called “expectations management.”

Here’s how it usually works: A company quietly lowers forward guidance over the quarter. Analysts follow suit. Then, when the company merely performs as originally planned, it still counts as a beat. It’s financial theatre, minus the popcorn.

This quarter, the median beat was 4%, and the median miss just 3%. That’s not exactly earth-shattering. But the key is perception. Markets are driven less by raw numbers and more by the delta between expectations and reality. Understanding that difference is how professionals separate the noise from the opportunity.

So, next time you hear that “everyone is beating estimates,” ask: Whose estimates? And what changed before earnings day?

The Fun Corner

Where Missing Less Means Winning More

Ever hear the joke about Wall Street’s grading system?

“Company reports record profits, stock drops 8%. Why? Because the profits weren’t record enough.”

Investors live in a world where outcomes don’t measure success, but by expectations. Meet expectations? That’s neutral. Beat expectations? Good. Miss by 1 cent? Catastrophe.

It’s the only place where making more money than last year could still make you a loser if someone thought you’d make slightly more.

This week, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America surprised with better-than-expected trading revenue. And suddenly, they’re market darlings, even though nothing fundamentally changed in their business. They just played the game better.

In short: “If Wall Street ran the Olympics, silver medalists would be accused of disappointing performance.”

Beyond the Noise: What Q2 Earnings Are Telling Us

The noise coming from Washington hasn’t stopped. Between President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and speculation around Jerome Powell’s job security, there’s no shortage of distractions. But investors aren’t flinching, because corporate earnings are giving them something more concrete to focus on.

So far, Q2 has started strong. Earnings from 53 S&P 500 companies show 85% have exceeded analyst estimates, led by strength in banking, trading revenue, and surprisingly resilient consumer spending. That’s helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover near record highs, not a bad consideration given the macro backdrop.

What’s driving this rally isn’t just better results. It’s the absence of worse news. Markets are betting that if Big Tech delivers, especially in terms of AI investment and guidance, the rally has legs. That puts immense weight on companies like Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel, all reporting this week.

Still, cracks exist. While current earnings appear healthy, forward guidance may be cautious, particularly from firms exposed to tariffs. And there’s a growing fear that the Fed, under pressure from both inflation and political interference, could tighten too aggressively later this year.

In short, the market isn’t ignoring risk. It’s choosing to focus on fundamentals, for now. If earnings continue to impress, the rally will likely persist. If they don’t, Washington’s noise will come roaring back.

The Last Say

Confidence, but Not Complacency

As we wrap this week’s edition of The Market Pulse, it’s clear that the stock market is choosing optimism, not recklessness. Earnings are stepping up where policy clarity is lacking. Investors are responding to real performance, not just political promises or threats.

However, this optimism has a limited shelf life. Tariff deadlines in early August, Powell’s tenuous standing, and the historic volatility of late summer months all loom just ahead. The strong early results from banks and Big Tech might support the rally for now, but markets will demand consistency in the coming weeks.

The takeaway? The market is rewarding execution. Companies that demonstrate their ability to navigate uncertainty are being revalued. The rest? They may not get the same grace period.

Investors should keep a close eye on this week’s reports. A strong showing could solidify the narrative that the economy is more resilient than feared. A stumble, though, might shift attention back to Washington faster than you can say “earnings call.”

Until then, fundamentals are in charge. For how long, no one knows. But for now, it’s enough.

The post Wall Street Shrugs Off Tariffs appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

Markets may not be rational, but they sure are exciting. In 2025, profitability has taken a back seat to potential. This week’s top performers include a lidar company with four straight quarters of losses and a digital health platform running deep in the red, yet their stock prices are flying. It’s not just about financial statements anymore. It’s about the narrative, the buzz, and whether you’re the next AI, EV, or quantum breakthrough darling.

Today’s Market Pulse looks under the hood of this speculative engine. Are we back in 2021 or is this a whole new beast? We’ll dig into that in our Main Topic, where we look at why fundamentals are being sidelined and what that means for long-term investors.

In This Week I Learned, we’ll explore how momentum investing became so dominant again and why even seasoned investors keep falling for the “next big thing.” And stick around for The Fun Corner, where we take a quick, humorous look at a “famous” stock that once soared on pure hype and crashed just as fast.

Markets might seem euphoric now, but underneath the surface, signs of strain are building. Let’s unpack what’s really moving stocks this year and how not to get caught in the hype trap.

This Week I Learned…

The Seduction of the Momentum Trade

Momentum trading is recognized as a recurring behavioral phenomenon in financial markets rather than a temporary trend. While momentum strategies have existed for many years, interest in them typically increases during speculative market periods. For example, stocks like AEVA can experience significant gains, such as 500 percent, even in the face of quarterly losses. This behavior illustrates the mechanics of herd behavior in the market.

Momentum works until it doesn’t. The strategy involves buying assets that are already on the rise, under the assumption that they’ll continue to climb. It sounds simple. But the reasons why momentum keeps reemerging are more complex: recency bias, FOMO, and the seductive nature of trending narratives all play a role.

Many of 2025’s story stocks echo the boom of 2021, when meme stocks and pandemic darlings ruled. But there’s a twist. Instead of nostalgia, today’s hype is built around future-facing tech. AI, EVs, quantum, and energy transition plays are the new Pelotons and AMCs.

Momentum can outperform. Academic research supports this. But timing the end of a momentum cycle is nearly impossible. As liquidity ebbs or macro sentiment turns, losses come fast. That’s the danger. This isn’t just about stocks going up. It’s about knowing when the air gets thin.

This week, I learned that even a well-told story can end in silence, and investors need to know when to stop clapping.

The Fun Corner

When Stocks Tell Stories Better Than Screenwriters

What do AEVA, FUBO, and GRPN have in common (besides dramatic stock surges)? None of them made a profit recently, but all of them became investor favorites this year.

Here’s your trivia: In 1999, a company called Pixelon threw a 16 million dollar party featuring KISS and The Who, then collapsed within months. Why? Because it faked its streaming tech and burned investor money trying to cover it up with hype.

Sound familiar?

The joke writes itself:
Q: Why did the unprofitable tech stock bring a megaphone to the earnings call?
A: Because shouting a good story is cheaper than showing a good balance sheet.

Momentum is fun until someone checks the books.

Momentum Over Money

Investors in 2025 are facing a surreal environment. Fundamentals, once sacred, are now optional. In today’s market, telling a compelling story outweighs generating steady profit, and investors are rewarding companies with promises rather than profits.

Take AEVA, the year’s top gainer with a 515 percent return. It hasn’t posted a profit in over a year. It’s not alone. Of the top 50 performers in the Russell 3000, 45 have posted at least one loss in the past four quarters. And yet, they’re the stars of the momentum trade.

What’s powering this? Partly, it’s performance chasing. When a stock doubles, others jump in out of fear of missing more upside. Social media platforms amplify these moves. Platforms like Reddit and X give even niche stocks viral potential. And ETFs like MTUM are adding fuel, gaining 15 percent year to date as momentum becomes self-fulfilling.

But risks are building. Analysts warn that if earnings don’t materialize, these high-fliers could crash hard. Speculation has a cost, and the warning signs, from rising gold prices to bond market jitters, suggest some investors are hedging.

Momentum trades can persist. But they don’t last forever. And when narrative collides with numbers, reality tends to win.

The Last Say

Story First, Profits Later? Maybe.

In this week’s Market Pulse, we’ve unpacked the market’s curious faith in companies that lose money but win headlines. The dream trade is back, and it’s moving fast. Stocks with flashy narratives are drawing big gains while fundamentals are waiting in the wings.

From AEVA to Palantir, the race to find “the next Nvidia” has investors ignoring quarterly reports in favor of potential. This mindset has created winners, but it also recalls painful lessons from the not-so-distant past.

Momentum might keep working until something breaks. The last time it ended, interest rates were the culprit. This time, it could be a weaker labor market, rising bond yields, or simply earnings that don’t show up.

For investors, the choice is between staying with the crowd or stepping back before the music stops. There’s nothing wrong with momentum, but chasing a dream without a deadline can be dangerous.

Next week could bring more gains or the first signs of exhaustion. Either way, remember: stories can move markets, but earnings keep them there.

The post The Stock Market’s Big Lie of 2025 appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

As we enter the second half of 2025, the stock market is exhibiting a refreshing shift. The rally, once dominated by Big Tech, is now expanding its horizons. Sectors like materials, financials, and energy are gaining momentum, indicating a more balanced and potentially sustainable market growth.

Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, have also joined the ascent, reflecting increased investor confidence in a broader economic recovery.

Meanwhile, the consumer-discretionary sector, which faced challenges earlier this year, is showing signs of resilience. Despite a 4.2% drop in the first half, the equal-weighted consumer-discretionary index has risen by 2.5%, suggesting that many consumer-related stocks are holding steady.

In this edition, we will look at the changing market and whether consumer stocks might rebound. We will also share an interesting insight into how index structures can change our view of the market. Stay with us for “This Week I Learned” and a light-hearted break in “The Fun Corner.” There are plenty of fresh opportunities in the market.

This Week I Learned…

The Equal-Weight Advantage

This week, I learned about the significance of equal-weighted indices in revealing underlying market strengths.

While the market-cap-weighted consumer-discretionary sector showed a decline, the equal-weighted version told a different story, highlighting the stability of smaller constituents.

This highlights the importance of examining beyond headline figures to comprehend the underlying dynamics at play. If your investing radar is only tuned to the giants like Tesla and Amazon, you might miss the quieter yet steadier gains in sectors that are evolving under the surface.

Investors can find new opportunities by focusing on metrics that treat all companies equally. This approach helps them discover hidden strengths and potential outside of the well-known tech giants. It also serves as a reminder that not all important market signals come from the biggest stocks.

The Fun Corner

Market Metrics and Misconceptions

Why did the investor bring a ladder to the stock exchange?

Because they heard the market was reaching new heights!

While some stocks or sectors may get a lot of attention in the news, it’s important to take a step back. A broader view often shows a more complex situation.

Sometimes, it’s not the biggest players but the collective moves of many smaller ones that shape the market’s direction. A little perspective goes a long way, especially when climbing the ladder of investment insight.

Consumer Stocks: Poised for a Comeback?

The consumer-discretionary sector, encompassing industries like retail, travel, and luxury goods, faced headwinds in the first half of 2025. However, recent data suggests a potential turnaround.

Improved consumer sentiment, a robust job market, and the prospect of interest rate cuts are creating a conducive environment for increased consumer spending.

Companies like McDonald’s, Lululemon, and Airbnb stand to benefit from these trends, potentially leading to a resurgence in the sector. As inflation cools and the wealth effect of a rising stock market builds, Americans may loosen their purse strings just in time for discretionary items to make a comeback.

However, challenges remain. High valuations and uncertainties around trade policies could temper growth. Tesla’s drag on sector performance highlights how concentrated weightings can distort broader trends. And while Amazon has stayed steady, its sheer dominance in the sector makes it harder for the rest to shine.

Investors should approach with cautious optimism, keeping an eye on evolving economic indicators. It’s not just about where the market has been, but where consumer confidence is heading next.

The Last Say

Broadening Horizons

The market’s expansion beyond Big Tech is a welcome development, signaling a more inclusive and potentially stable growth trajectory.

As sectors like consumer-discretionary show signs of revival, investors have new opportunities to diversify and capitalize on emerging trends. The spotlight is shifting from the tech elite to a wider cast of performers, reflecting not just market optimism, but healthier fundamentals.

Being informed and flexible will be crucial for navigating the changes in the second half of 2025.

From small-cap rebounds to consumer resilience, this broader rally may provide a sturdier base for gains ahead. The question now isn’t just which stock will lead—but whether the foundation beneath them can carry this momentum further.

The post Beyond Big Tech: Where’s the Smart Money Going? appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

This remarkable growth extends across all 50 states, signaling a widespread commitment to sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore, the Biden Administration has demonstrated its dedication to this cause by allocating a substantial $300 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funds specifically earmarked for green energy initiatives. 

• As the nation faces pressing environmental challenges and strives for energy independence, these developments signal a promising shift towards a more sustainable and eco-friendly future.
  
  According to EnvironmetAmerica, here are the topline findings in wind and solar energy production in the United States:
  
• The United States produced enough wind energy to power nearly 41 million typical homes in 2022 – 2.6 times as much wind energy as in 2013.
  
• The U.S. produced enough solar energy to power 19 million homes in 2022 – nearly 12 times as much solar energy as in 2013.
  
• The U.S. had 8.9 gigawatts of battery energy storage at the end of 2022, 60 times as much as in 2013 and 85 percent more than at the end of 2021, helping to support the use of more renewable energy and keep the lights on during extreme weather and times of grid stress.
  
• Energy efficiency improvements installed in 2021 will save 300 terawatt-hours of power over their lifetimes – enough to power 28 million homes for a year. Energy efficiency savings increased by about 20% between 2013 and 2021, the last year for which information is available.
  
• Americans bought more than 925,000 plug-in electric vehicles in 2022 – a more than 10-fold increase from 2013. Meanwhile, the number of electric vehicle chargers nationwide exceeded 151,000 – a nearly 18-fold increase from 2013.
  
• 14 states produce the equivalent of 30% or more of their electricity consumption from wind, solar and geothermal, up from just two states in 2013.

At current levels, solar and wind power generates enough electricity to power 60 million typical households. When you consider that there are an estimated 131.43 households in the United States, that’s a huge step toward clean energy and a reduced dependence on fossil fuels.

Our Top Solar and WInd Energy Stocks for 2024

Solar Energy: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is well-positioned to emerge as an industry leader in 2024 due to several strategic advantages. 

As a leading manufacturer of thin-film photovoltaic modules, First Solar boasts a technology that is both efficient and cost-effective, offering a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving solar energy market. With a strong commitment to sustainability and a focus on reducing its carbon footprint, the company aligns with the growing global demand for clean energy solutions. Moreover, First Solar’s consistent innovation in solar technology, a robust project pipeline, and its expanding global footprint indicate a solid growth trajectory. 

Its ability to navigate regulatory challenges and adapt to evolving market dynamics positions the company favorably as the world continues to shift toward renewable energy sources, making First Solar a prominent player in shaping the future of the solar industry in 2024 and beyond.

In a recent article, Reuters reported that First Solar plans to sell $700 million in Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits to payments firm Fiserv). These tax credits are designed to incentivize domestic production of clean energy products while reducing dependence on Chinese-made components.

TipRanks has issued a Strong Buy on FSLR, with 21 analysts issuing price targets between a low of $185 to a high of $275 by the end of 2024. The average price target is $230.68.

Wind Energy: General Electric (GE)

General Electric (GE) is well on its way to becoming a dominant player in the wind energy sector in 2024 due to its strong commitment to innovation, vast experience, and global presence. GE has been a pioneer in wind turbine technology for decades and has continually invested in research and development to improve the efficiency and reliability of its wind turbines. This dedication to innovation positions GE to offer cutting-edge wind energy solutions, making its products highly competitive in the market.

GE has a significant global footprint, with wind energy projects and installations in various countries around the world. Its expansive reach allows the company to leverage its expertise and provide comprehensive wind energy solutions, from turbine manufacturing to grid integration and maintenance services. This global presence not only enhances GE’s market share but also enables it to adapt to the diverse needs and regulatory environments of different regions, making it a versatile and adaptable player in the wind energy space.

Additionally, GE’s commitment to sustainability aligns with the increasing global demand for clean energy sources. As governments and businesses prioritize renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions, GE’s focus on wind energy positions it as a key contributor to achieving these sustainability goals. 

With a combination of advanced technology, global reach, and a dedication to environmental responsibility, General Electric is poised to play a dominant role in the wind energy industry in 2024 and beyond.

TipRanks has issued a Strong Buy on GE, with 12 analysts issuing price targets between a low of $120 to a high of $150 by the end of 2024. The average price target is $140.18.

Conclusion

The potential for solar and wind power to supply the majority of American households with clean and sustainable energy within the next few years is increasingly promising. The renewable energy sector has seen remarkable growth and innovation, driven by advances in technology, declining costs, and a growing commitment to combating climate change. Solar and wind power offer a compelling solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on fossil fuels, and transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

One of the key drivers of this potential lies in the rapid expansion of solar and wind infrastructure across the country. Investments in solar panels and wind turbines have become more affordable, making them accessible to a wider range of homeowners and businesses. Moreover, federal and state incentives, along with supportive policies, have encouraged the adoption of renewable energy systems. The growth of distributed energy resources, such as residential solar panels, has further empowered households to generate their own clean electricity and even sell surplus energy back to the grid, thereby reducing dependence on conventional energy sources.

Additionally, the scalability of solar and wind power generation makes them well-suited to meet the energy demands of American households. With continued advancements in energy storage technology, intermittent generation issues associated with renewables are being addressed. The ability to store excess energy during periods of high generation and deploy it when needed ensures a more reliable and consistent energy supply. 

As we witness ongoing investments and commitment to clean energy solutions, there is a strong likelihood that a significant majority of American households will be powered by solar and wind within the next few years, contributing to a more sustainable and environmentally responsible energy landscape.

The post Could 2024 be a Pivotal Year for Solar and Wind Power? appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

All three of these stocks came out of the gate seeking what they believed was fair valuation. In each case, the stock price plummeted coming out of the gate.

How have they performed since their initial drop? Let’s take a closer look.

Arm Holdings (ARM)

ARM Holdings entered the hot chip and semiconductor market on September 14, 2023 priced at $56 dollars per share. It ran up to $69 within one day before it came crashing down to a low of $49.87. 

Last Report – October 18, 2023

ARM fell from a high of $69 down to a tight range between $50 and $56. Stochastics were oversold, suggesting a potential price reversal back to the upside

Updated Report November 9, 2023

After a brief period breaking below the $50 price level,  ARM is currently traveling near the upper boundary of its historical price range. Will price breakout to the upside, or will the $56 price level hold up as resistance? That remains to be seen, but the stochastic oscillator shows ARM being extremely overbought, signalling that a pullback in price may be imminent.

Instacart (CART)

The popular grocery delivery company that flourished during the height of the pandemic launched its IPO September 19, 2023 five days after ARM. The stock hit the market priced at $42 and plummeted down to a low of $24.50.  It then settled into a price range between 24.50 and $27.

Last Report – October 18, 2023

Updated Report November 9, 2023

CART just broke through the upper end of the $24.50-$27 price range, and is currently trading at $27.24 going into earnings. Will it start to grind its way up, or will it pullback to its historical price range? The earnings report could weigh heavily into the short-term direction of CART. Stochastics are nearing overbought territory, so keep an eye on a potential short-term price pullback.

Birkenstock (BIRK)

On October 11, 2023 German sandal maker Birkenstock (BIRK) launched its IPO. 

Last Report – October 18, 2023

Just like ARM and CART, BIRK debuted on Wall St. priced at $42 dollars per share, before quickly pulling back to $36 dollars.

After a three-day freefall, BIRK rallied back for 2 days, closing at $39.28 on October 17.

Updated Report November 9, 2023

Since our last report on October 18, BIRK has risen nearly 15% in price from $36.78 to $42.21. BIRK is now trading above its IPO prce of $41.

Conclusion

ARM, CART and BIRK all had rocky debuts on the Fall of 2023, but all three of them appear to have established a floor in pricing and have been grinding their way upward.

Of these three new IPOs, Birkenstock has shown the best performance to date.

We will re-visit these IPOs one full year after their debuts.

The post ARM, BIRK, CART Update. How are These New IPOs Performing? appeared first on Global Investment Daily.

But this playing field is about to become more crowded as plant-based food 2.0 throws up new players who will have learned from the mistakes of the pioneers. 

Still, last year was an epic one for the fake meat industry: In the space of just 12 months, vegan meats went from something very few Americans had even heard of to something that 40% had actually given a try.

It all started in the spring of 2019 after Impossible Foods struck strategic partnerships with Qdoba, Burger King and dozens of other restaurants and franchises. 

Soon thereafter, Beyond Meat started selling its products at several large restaurants including Subway, Del Taco (NASDAQ:TACO), Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNKN) and more recently KFC (NYSE:YUM). 

Although at first both companies entered the mainstream fast-food market by selling burgers, they have since launched more novel products such as Beyond’s ground beef and KFC chicken to Impossible’s sausages.

Source: Vox

The Trends Behind the Trend

Meat is a huge business in the United States.

According to the National Chicken Council, in 2018, Americans consumed 110 pounds of beef and pork; 94 pounds of poultry and another 16 pounds of commercial fish and shell-fish per capita for a combined 220 pounds of meat–more than 50 pounds higher than what they consumed in 1960.

That’s a colossal amount of meat, placing America second behind only Australia on the list of the world’s biggest per capita meat consumers.

This love affair with meat has helped build a $1.4-trillion industry, and meat alternatives are now coming in to stake their claim in this mammoth market.

How big could this budding sector grow?

Currently, the U.S. plant-based food market is valued at $5B with the plant-based meat sector approaching $1B. However, the sector has the potential to grow much bigger if the growth trajectory of plant-based dairy foods is any indication. 

Plant-based dairy foods have managed to garner some 14% of the dairy market, with plant-based food retail sales now growing 5x faster than total food sales. If vegan meat is able to replicate this feat, it could balloon to a $200B industry in the near future.

Indeed, sales of plant-based meat surged 280% at the height of Covid-19 thanks to widespread meat shortages and rampant closure of slaughterhouses around the world. 

Further, people are becoming increasingly wary of ‘animal-borne illnesses’ with the origin of the novel virus pinned on bats which spread it to humans in one of the deadliest cases of zoonotic spillover.

Here are the top trends that could power a vegan meat boom over the next decade.

#1 Health-conscious consumers

Over the past decade, global consumers have increasingly been opting for health foods with the global health and wellness food market poised to expand by $236B during 2020-2024 period, good for a CAGR of 6%.

Changing consumer tastes and preferences inevitably elicit the big question: Is plant-based meat a healthier choice than animal meat?

Some vegan meat skeptics have pointed out that many of these meat alternatives are highly processed and do not deserve the “health halo effect” they tend to receive simply on account of being vegan. Some studies have concluded that some vegan meats have calorie, fat and sodium content comparable to or even higher than beef. Still, the health evidence seems to tilt more in favor of vegan meats than animal meat. According to a large-scale 2016 Harvard study, processed red meat has been linked to significantly higher death rates than plant protein. The Harvard researchers found that plant proteins appear to be most protective from deaths linked to heart disease, especially among people with unhealthy benefits including smoking, heavy alcohol intake, overweight/obesity, and physical inactivity.

A total of 131,000 participants took part in the Harvard study which tracked them over 32 years. 

More and more people though are opting for vegan meat due to another big reason: They are healthier for the environment.

Beyond Meat says it takes about 41 square feet of land and 58 gallons of water to produce one 0.25-pound beef burger, not to mention that our 1.4 billion head of cattle are responsible for 40% of our annual methane budget–a gas that’s 80X more potent than CO2 at trapping the sun’s heat.

A recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey revealed that 35% of respondents said they opted for plant-based protein due to health or nutrition reasons while 30% did the same for environmental reasons.

Yet another reason why more people are choosing plant-based meats: Fake meats are getting ever closer to the real thing.

Meat is a highly complex substance and incredibly difficult to synthesize artificially. Nevertheless, plants contain protein, fat, water and trace materials–the four main building blocks of meat. Further, scientists have made rapid progress making plant-based meats that are virtually indistinguishable from beef for the average consumer.

That’s a critical milestone because experts agree that taste will be the big make-or-break factor for the vegan meat industry. The Beyond Burger and Impossible Burger have received positive reviews at Food & Wine while traditional veggie burgers have scored much lower.

The most bullish finding: More than half of respondents, both young and older folks, who have tried plant-based meats say they are likely to come back for more.

Source: Vox

#2 Ballooning market

Fake meat stocks have lately gone parabolic, with Beyond Meat leading the arena with a 145% gain in the year-to-date and 640% since its May 2019 IPO thanks to continuing robust topline growth.

Beyond Meat revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 clocked in at $0.113B, good for a 68.53% year-over-year increase while revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2020 was $0.401B, a 142.58% Y/Y increase.

Bullish Wall Street analysts have pointed to the rapid growth of the total addressable market of alternative meats. Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer has estimated that Beyond could capture about 4.5% of global market share of alternative meat over the next decade, which would imply a 3,000% revenue jump.

As we have pointed above, the alternative meat industry could balloon to a $200B industry if vegan meats are able to grow as fast as their plant-based dairy sector brethren.

#3 Meat-loving China

Although China is home to 18.5% of the world’s population, the country consumes 27% of the world-wide meat production. China’s love-affair with meat has led some analysts to believe that it could become an important market for vegan meat companies once the Chinese become more aware of the health and environmental impact of meat products.

Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat have already shown strong intentions to capitalize on this market with Beyond Meat previously announcing plans to commence vegan meat production in China by 2020-end. Impossible Foods’s sausages could also find a ready market there considering that China currently consumes the largest amount of pork of any country in the world.

Stocks to Buy

The meatless meat boom has helped vegan meat stocks go ballistic, leading to a cross-section of Wall Street warning that some have turned into cult stocks whose share runs have outpaced their fundamentals.

Beyond Meat is frequently in the news due to its huge runup since its IPO. Lately, BYND has been slipping after Bernstein lowered the producer to an Underperform rating after having previously slotted it at Market Perform. The analyst’s $136 price target represents 26% downside to current price.

Despite valuation concerns, the long-term outlook for the industry appears bright with the long growth runways allowing many players time to grow into their steep valuations.

The top picks in this sector include:

• Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND)

• Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN)
• ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG)
• Kellogg (NYSE:K)
• Maple Leaf Foods (OTCMKTS:MLFNF)
• Forum Merger II (NASDAQ:FMCI)

The post The Meatless Meat Boom is Just Getting Started appeared first on Global Investment Daily.